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The trouble with counting people in China

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A while back, I tried to answer a simple question people often asked me about Dalian: How many people live there?

Simple question, tough answer. Alex found a good dataset, which we put on DalianDalian. Well, the question has come back.

I’m writing a cover story on real estate in China’s second-tier cities for an investment newsletter, and as part of the project, I’ve decided to compile a database of locales, most of which people outside of China have likely never heard (admittedly, there are some I couldn’t have put on a map before starting this piece).

I have a spreadsheet defining cities, provinces, regions, population, major industries, notable real estate and other notes. Most of that information is widely available, especially since these cities are now making a major push for investment. But population has proven tricky. For the map I’ll eventually build off this database, I think I’m going to attach the following disclaimer/explainer:

Counting how many people live in any Chinese city is an imperfect science. For this dataset, we’ve relied on a variety of sources, including government websites, published reports and other online resources.

Part of the problem is the population itself. Chinese cities have been undergoing a massive growth spurt since 1978, when the government first began letting people move to urban areas en masse. Most of this movement is legal, and counted in official surveys. Residents register with local authorities in order to receive government services, such as health and education. But unofficial migration is also widespread, and most cities have large segments that remain uncounted (and unserved).

Further blurring statistics is the way a city is defined. In Dalian, for example, the urban center–what might be called the city proper–is home to about 2 million people. Add in the surrounding “towns” such as Zhuanghe (pop. 700,000) or Pulandian (pop. 900,000)–both of which are a mix of city and countryside–and the total is above 6 million. Different sources count different areas, making a definitive number hard to come by.

This is a long way of saying: Take these numbers with a grain of salt, and please, forgive us if you’ve seen a different number elsewhere.

How’s it sound?

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